Difference between revisions of "Nuclear Deterrence Theory"

Revision as of 07:26, 30 January 2022

Mushroom cloud over Nagasaki, Japan, after second bomb to hit was dropped, Aug. 9, 1945.

Nuclear Weapons, usually in the form of bombs or warheads, have long been recognized as a catastrophic force of mass destruction. As an ultra-impactful mean to alter the outcome of wars, captured by the aftermath of the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945, the technology/information on building Nuclear Weapons had become an essential matter of interest for numerous countries(e.g., the Soviet Union, the United Kingdom, France, China) ever since the end of WWII. Such interest(which eventually led to a series of campaign of Nuclear proliferation among countries) not only attributes to the formidability of Nuclear power, but more importantly the potential stability and order that could have been provided to the globe after wartime^[1], as proposed by the American Economist Thomas Schelling’s “Nuclear Deterrence Theory”—the idea that multiple countries simultaneously possessing the ruinous nuke force would actually deter the use of Nuclear Weapons among Nuclear-owned countries, backed up by an explicit mismatch between, intuitively, “a conceivable defense system” and “the speed with which nuclear weapons can be deployed”, according to Schelling^[2].

As for now, “Nuclear Deterrence Theory” is adopted by most countries that have acquired the capability of building nuke weapons(i.e., Nine nations have developed the intelligence to create and possess nuclear power), and hence the ethical issues associated with these weapons become increasingly critical and relevant to mankind’s interest(e.g., "Is using Nuclear Weapons permissible under certain circumstances such that intended for eliminating Japanese Fascism and Militarism in 1945?", "Is it ethical to implement nuclear deterrence and threaten to use atomic weapons as a self-defense strategy such as the case of North Korea?","Why were we using Nuclear Weapons in the first place?", etc.).

History of Nuclear Adoption

United States

On July 12, 1939(months into WWII)^[3], Hungarian physicist Leo Szilard and Eugene Wigner, major contributors to Nuclear technology, visited physicist Albert Einstein on New York's Long Island. That night they explained to him about the possibility of atomic bombs, and the concern over the potential that German Fascism may have acquired the same idea, after noticing German nuclear physicist Siegfried Flügge published two influential articles regarding the exploitation of nuclear energy. Szilard and Wigner knew that Einstein held personal relationship with the Belgian Royal Family, whose country was now exposed to the risk of invasion for having the best source of uranium ore, and hence was the most suitable person to send the warnings. Einstein subsequently signed a letter wrote by Wigner regarding the issue. At Wigner's suggestion, they also prepared a letter for the State Department explaining what they were doing and why, and to see if it had any objections.

This, however, still left the problem of getting government support for Szilard’s uranium research. He was suggested to meet with economist Alexander Sachs, who had access to President Franklin D. Roosevelt. Sachs told Szilard that he had already spoken to the President about uranium and that the prospects for building an atomic bomb were actually "remote", according to physicists Enrico Fermi and George B. Pegram’s evaluation. He told Szilard that he would deliver his letter regardless, but suggested that it come from someone more prestigious. For Szilard, Einstein was again the obvious choice for being the influential figure. Eventually, Roosevelt received the message, and it was not until this time when nuclear capability was thoroughly discussed on the governmental level.

The following^[4] addressed to President Roosevelt on August 2, 1939 warned that:

"In the course of the last four months it has been made probable – through the work of Joliot in France as well as Fermi and Szilard in America – that it may become possible to set up a nuclear chain reaction in a large mass of uranium, by which vast amounts of power and large quantities of new radium-like elements would be generated. Now it appears almost certain that this could be achieved in the immediate future.

This new phenomenon would also lead to the construction of bombs, and it is conceivable – though much less certain – that extremely powerful bombs of a new type may thus be constructed. A single bomb of this type, carried by boat and exploded in a port, might very well destroy the whole port together with some of the surrounding territory. However, such bombs might very well prove to be too heavy for transportation by air.

It also specifically warned about the potential Nuclear threat from Germany:

"I understand that Germany has actually stopped the sale of uranium from the Czechoslovakian mines which she has taken over. That she should have taken such early action might perhaps be understood on the ground that the son of the German Under-Secretary of State, von Weizsäcker, is attached to the Kaiser-Wilhelm-Institut in Berlin where some of the American work on uranium is now being repeated."

Through a series of effort made by Sachs, on October 11, the delivery was successfully made. Roosevelt sent a reply thanking Einstein, and informing him that:

"I found this data of such import that I have convened a Board consisting of the head of the Bureau of Standards and a chosen representative of the Army and Navy to thoroughly investigate the possibilities of your suggestion regarding the element of uranium."^[5]

Followed by the thanking letter is years of continuous actions, from establishing the Advisory Committee on Uranium in 1939, the beginning of the US government's effort to develop an atomic bomb(although it did not vigorously pursue the development of a weapon), to the command of United States Army Corps of Engineers's Manhattan District in June 1942, which directed an all-out bomb development program, known as the Manhattan Project, and successfully produced the first atomic bomb in 1945. ^[6]

Soviet Union

As one of the only two superpowers at the time, the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics(USSR) had been paying close attention towards the successful advances of the nuclear weapon made by the U.S. since 1939. Quickly realizing the threats to national security posed by the newly advances of an atomic bomb(which did not merely lie in how the Germans were halted outside Moscow and the potential they were also acquiring the technology, but equally-importantly how the Americans could overcome Hitler on their own, followed by which a potential to Hegemony for their military predominance), Joseph Stalin and the USSR started spending years of effort penetrating the technology.^[7]

In September 1942, Stalin authorized a specialist laboratory to work on nuclear weapons, and this was later known as the start of the Soviet atomic program. In addition to the support of a highly accomplished group of physicists led by Igor Vasilyevich Kurchatov(known as the father of the Soviet atom bomb), the program was also backed up by a so high-functioning spying network that "(the Soviets) had a complete picture of the progress of the American atomic project, and even knew the locations of the main research center", while crucial technical assistance was also generously provided by American nuclear physicists sympathetic to the USSR. Thanks to them the blueprints for the American atomic bomb were already on the Soviet's desk two weeks after it was created in 1945.^[8]

China

In 1949, Chinese Communist Party(CCP) leader Mao Zedong established the People's Republic of China after years of civil conflict. Soon after, in accordance with the national strategy, Mao traveled to Moscow to see Soviet leader Joseph Stalin, with whom he signed the Sino-Soviet Treaty of Friendship and Alliance(Despite the fact that China's partnership with the Soviet Union was short-lived, this was critical to the early success of China's nuclear program).

Mao soon faced fierce opposition from the West for the unexpected alliance, particularly the United States, which threatened the country with usage of nuclear strikes. And the conflict soon even escalated after North Korea's attack on South Korea in June 1950, as Washington intervened on the South's behalf while Beijing fought for the North's side. As the U.S. government seriously mulled a nuclear strike, President Harry S. Truman reportedly deployed 10 nuclear-armed B-29 bombers to the fleet in pacific.

Despite the fact that no nuclear weapons were ever used against China, U.S. continued to send similar nuclear hostility after Mao promised support to the Vietnamese in French Indochina. President Dwight D. Eisenhower also pondered using the bomb to defend Taiwan against the Chinese aggression when nationalist opposition leader Chiang Kai-Shek fled to the island in 1949.

In January 1955, Mao gave the green light to the Chinese atomic bomb development, largely in response to the American nuclear threat. "We need the atom bomb," as affirmed by Mao, "we need it if we don't want to be intimidated as a nation" ^[9]

In 1957, the Soviet Union committed to provide China with a sample of an atomic bomb as well as supporting data, allowing Beijing to construct a nuclear weapon on its own. Hundreds of Chinese and Soviet nuclear scientists and engineers worked and studied in both the USSR and China's nuclear energy industries from 1955 to 1959, allowing for a deep mutual grasp of each other's nuclear research techniques and technology. However, following the rise of mutual political rivalry and concomitant skepticism, the Soviet Union prohibited this interchange and stopped assisting China in 1959.

After the United States, the Soviet Union, the United Kingdom, and France, China eventually became the fifth country to possess nuclear weapons in 1964. Despite the fact that the Chinese atomic bomb programme was mainly self-developed, it benefited enormously from Soviet and Western assistance.

Nuclear Deterrence Theory

Ethical debate of the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945

Ethical debate of the atomic bombings threat by North Korea

Reference

1. ↑ Kenneth Waltz, “The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: More May Better,” Adelphi Papers, Number 171 (London: International Institute for Strategic Studies, 1981) https://www.mtholyoke.edu/acad/intrel/waltz1.htm
2. ↑ Schelling, T. C. (1966), "2", The Diplomacy of Violence, New Haven: Yale University Press, pp. 1–34
3. ↑ Lanouette, William; Silard, Bela (1992). Genius in the Shadows: A Biography of Leo Szilárd: The Man Behind The Bomb. New York: Charles Scribner's Sons. ISBN 978-0-684-19011-2.
4. ↑ "Albert Einstein's Letters to President Franklin Delano Roosevelt". E-World. 1997. Retrieved October 9, 2013.
5. ↑ "President Roosevelt's response to Dr. Einstein Letter, Atomic Archive". Atomic Archive. Retrieved October 9, 2013
6. ↑ Hewlett, Richard G.; Anderson, Oscar E. (1962). The New World, 1939–1946 (PDF). Physics Today. Vol. 15. University Park: Pennsylvania State University Press. p. 62. Bibcode:1962PhT....15l..62H. doi:10.1063/1.3057919. ISBN 978-0-520-07186-5. OCLC 637004643.
7. ↑ Vershinin, Alexander. Russia Beyond, "Why did the Soviet Union develop its own atomic bomb?"https://www.rbth.com/arts/history/2017/03/23/why-did-the-soviet-union-develop-its-own-atomic-bomb_725898
8. ↑ Goncharov, German A. (1996). "American and Soviet H-bomb development programmes: historical background" ISSN 1063-7869. Retrieved 16 May 2013.
9. ↑ Chansoria, Monika. “The Political History of China’s Nuclear Bomb.” Claws Journal (Winter 2013): 79-96.