Difference between revisions of "Moore's Law"

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''' Moore's Law ''' is a phenomenon first observed by Gordon Moore, who was both one of the founders of Fairchild Semiconductor and a former CEO of [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intel Intel]. The law states, in its most popular form, that the number of [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transistor transistors] on a computer circuit will double every two years <ref>Tardi, Carla. “Moore's Law Explained.” Investopedia, Investopedia, 24 Mar. 2019, www.investopedia.com/terms/m/mooreslaw.asp.</ref>. Transistors are a type of semiconductor made up of either silicon or germanium that can manipulate the flow of electrons.<ref>Riordan, Michael. “Transistor.” Encyclopædia Britannica, Encyclopædia Britannica, Inc., 9 Oct. 2018, www.britannica.com/technology/transistor.</ref>  
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''' Moore's Law ''' states that the number of [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transistor transistors] on a computer circuit will double every two years <ref>Tardi, Carla. “Moore's Law Explained.” Investopedia, Investopedia, 24 Mar. 2019, www.investopedia.com/terms/m/mooreslaw.asp.</ref>. Gordon Moore, who was both one of the founders of Fairchild Semiconductor and a former CEO of [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intel Intel] first observed the phenomenon. Transistors are a type of semiconductor made up of either silicon or germanium that can manipulate the flow of electrons.<ref>Riordan, Michael. “Transistor.” Encyclopædia Britannica, Encyclopædia Britannica, Inc., 9 Oct. 2018, www.britannica.com/technology/transistor.</ref>  
  
 
In a more abstract interpretation, Moore’s law refers to the more general principle in computing of constant improvement and the unstoppable evolution of technological efficiency and power. The law implies exponential growth. Because Moore’s law is an observation of a historical trend and not a scientific law like the [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_law_of_thermodynamics 1st law of thermodynamics], its definition is more easily manipulated and changed in terms of its content and implications. While generally interpreted as a positive trend, Moore's Law and its underlying ethical implications have become a topic of debate, especially as it pertains to the ethical development of emerging technologies within the fields of energy consumption, algorithms, and online privacy.   
 
In a more abstract interpretation, Moore’s law refers to the more general principle in computing of constant improvement and the unstoppable evolution of technological efficiency and power. The law implies exponential growth. Because Moore’s law is an observation of a historical trend and not a scientific law like the [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_law_of_thermodynamics 1st law of thermodynamics], its definition is more easily manipulated and changed in terms of its content and implications. While generally interpreted as a positive trend, Moore's Law and its underlying ethical implications have become a topic of debate, especially as it pertains to the ethical development of emerging technologies within the fields of energy consumption, algorithms, and online privacy.   

Revision as of 12:55, 19 April 2019

Moore's Law

Moore's Law states that the number of transistors on a computer circuit will double every two years [1]. Gordon Moore, who was both one of the founders of Fairchild Semiconductor and a former CEO of Intel first observed the phenomenon. Transistors are a type of semiconductor made up of either silicon or germanium that can manipulate the flow of electrons.[2]

In a more abstract interpretation, Moore’s law refers to the more general principle in computing of constant improvement and the unstoppable evolution of technological efficiency and power. The law implies exponential growth. Because Moore’s law is an observation of a historical trend and not a scientific law like the 1st law of thermodynamics, its definition is more easily manipulated and changed in terms of its content and implications. While generally interpreted as a positive trend, Moore's Law and its underlying ethical implications have become a topic of debate, especially as it pertains to the ethical development of emerging technologies within the fields of energy consumption, algorithms, and online privacy.

Background

Transistors

Nobel Prize winners: John Bardeen, Walter Brattain, and William Shockley

Computers are fundamentally a collection of electronic switches. These switches control how electrical charges are routed communicate in order to represent bits, binary digits, that can be translated into understandable information. The first computers, everything from the Model K to the AVIDAC, used vacuum tubes as switches. Inefficiencies in vacuum tubes’ excess heat generation and tendency to break lead to the creation of transistor.[3] Transistors are much smaller, faster and require less power than the vacuum tube. Transistors were invented by John Bardeen, Walter Brattain, and William Shockley. All three men worked for Bell Laboratories and were awarded the Nobel Prize in Physics in 1956.[4]

Creation and Iterations of Moore's Law

In 1965, Gordon Moore put out a short report that would later become what we know today as Moore’s law. In the paper, titled “Cramming more components onto integrated circuits”, he simply referred to a historical trend, observing that, for a set cost, the number of integrated components has increased a rate of 2x per year.[5] This means that the number of transistors within a constant physical space will double every year. In this article, he also predicted that this trend would continue until at least 1975.

At the time, the computer chip industry was capable of integrating tens of transistors on a single silicon die, and Moore was projecting the integration of up to “65,000 components on a single silicon chip”.[5] During the IEEE technology conference in 1975, Moore made a revision to his previous statement. Citing new research and advancements, he said that the doubling of transistor density would continue, but at the pace of 18-24 months for the foreseeable future.[6] Shortly after his revision, a professor at CalTech named Calvin Mead gave Moore’s prediction the name we know it as today.

Moore's Law in Other Contexts

Eroom's Law

Eroom’s law is another observation of historical trends, but it uses data derived from the research and development of pharmaceutical drugs. It is virtually the opposite of Moore’s Law. Originally proposed in the Nature Journal,[7] the phenomenon describes, in the last 60 years, how the number of new drugs approved per billion US dollars has halved roughly every 9 years. While computers are becoming exponentially more efficient, drug discovery is becoming exponentially less efficient.

Carlson Curve

Published in a paper titled, “Biology is Technology”,[8] Robert Carlson examined biology as a human technology. In his analysis, he found that, controlling for cost, the performance of technologies including DNA sequencing, DNA synthesis, and a range of other computational tools used in biotechnology has and would continue to double every 2 years.

Andy and Bill's Law

Named after Former Intel and Microsoft CEOs Andy Grove and Bill Gates, the law states that that every time a computer chip is released, software is updated to take full advantage of all of its features. This is closely tied to Moore's Law as Moore's law is what allows the new computer chips to be more powerful, which in turn allow for more and more complex software[9]

Metcalfe's Law

Named for Robert Metcalfe, inventor of the Ethernet networking protocol, it states that the a network's impact is the square of its nodes.[10] This help explains the rapid growth in utility of networks such as the telephone and the internet, as well as the growth of business and social networks, such as FedEx, EBay, Facebook, Instagram, and Amazon.

Moore's Law is Dying

Starting in 2010, Moore’s Law began to slow down for two main reasons.[11] The first is electrical leakage. For the second half of the 20th century, the miniaturization of transistors meant that they would be more energy efficient. Recently, they have gotten so small, even as small as 10 nanometers,[12] that the transistor through which the electronic currents flow cannot always contain it. The second reason is based on economic factors. As transistors get smaller and generate more heat as a result of their instability and greater concentration of units, the amount of infrastructure needed to keep the transistors cool also increases, and the cost of cooling large server rooms is getting more and more expensive.[13] This cost of cooling is the main factor holding back transistors from improving as they have been according to Moore's Law. These realities led the CEO of Nvidia to declare Moore’s law to be dead at CES 2019.[14]

Ethical Implications and Emerging Technologies

Moore’s Law, more abstractly, gives a name to the constant, iterative improvement in computational efficiency. This innovation has given us supercomputers in our pockets, the ability to buy household items on an online marketplace and receive them in 2 days, and the means to connect with those who are thousands of miles away. However, as Phillip Brey writes in his paper, Anticipating ethical issues in emerging IT, "current ethics...are insufficiently equipped to address the revolutionary changes that are being brought about with new and emerging technologies."[15] When the pace of technological advancement, underpinned by Moore's Law, is far greater than that of its complementary practices of ethical scrutiny, emerging technology continues to progress unchecked, and the negative, non-moral values internalized by the technologies only come to light as the result of disaster and tragedy.

Energy Consumption

Exxon Valdez Oil Spill

One of the nagging, unforeseen consequences of Moore’s Law is energy consumption. As computer chips become more powerful, the amount of power they consume also increases, as does the ratio of overall human energy consumption that is devoted to computational practices. The ethical implications for this eventuality come from the means by which the energy is being produced. Events like the 3 Mile Island and the Exxon Valdez oil spill are not likely to stop as long as energy demands are increasing. One could argue that those events allowed us to learn from our mistakes, but, as Daniel Dennet writes in Virtues of Ignorance, “can we say, with confidence better than a coin flip, whether 3 Mile Island was one of the good things that have happened or one of the bad?”.[16]

Algorithmic Bias

Side-effects of disruptive technology can present themselves in unintended ways. Technological advancement facilitated by Moore’s Law has lead to developments in automated algorithms, but this rapid growth often goes unchecked and unregulated. Safiya Noble discusses instances of algorithmic search engines reinforcing racism in her book, "Algorithms of Oppression".[17] Frances Godzinsky delves into the mechanisms behind technological bias in her paper titled, “The ethics of designing artificial agents”.[18] She argues that the burden of responsibility for the actions of these artificial agents falls on the human designers. Both Godzinsky and Noble see that there is an external prompter for every piece of technology and that technology often internalizes the biases of its creators. For Godzinsky and Noble, the solution for this issue is to slow the pace of progress and more cautiously consider what the ethical consequences of these advancements might be. This emphasis on careful thought preceding technological innovation is at odds with the principles that underlie Moore’s Law.

Online Privacy

Moore’s law also speaks to increasing computational efficiencies being coupled with increasing monetary efficiencies. As it becomes more cost effective to aggregate and store massive amounts of information, the tendency to do so increases. One implication of this is that information on the internet doesn’t really get deleted. A lack of control over personal information’s availability online has raised questions of online privacy. Leading ICT ethicist Luciano Floridi writes that the right to privacy is a right to a renewable identity,[19] an idea that doesn't mesh well with the ease of keeping information online that Moore's Law provides.

References

  1. ↑ Tardi, Carla. “Moore's Law Explained.” Investopedia, Investopedia, 24 Mar. 2019, www.investopedia.com/terms/m/mooreslaw.asp.
  2. ↑ Riordan, Michael. “Transistor.” Encyclopædia Britannica, Encyclopædia Britannica, Inc., 9 Oct. 2018, www.britannica.com/technology/transistor.
  3. ↑ Riordan, Michael, and Lillian Hoddeson. “The First Transistorized Computer.” PBS, Public Broadcasting Service, www.pbs.org/transistor/background1/events/sscomputer.html.
  4. ↑ “The Nobel Prize in Physics 1956.” NobelPrize.org, www.nobelprize.org/prizes/physics/1956/summary/.
  5. ↑ 5.0 5.1 G. E. Moore, "Cramming more components onto integrated circuits, Reprinted from Electronics, volume 38, number 8, April 19, 1965, pp.114 ff.," in IEEE Solid-State Circuits Society Newsletter, vol. 11, no. 3, pp. 33-35, Sept. 2006.
  6. ↑ G. E. Moore, "Progress in digital integrated electronics [Technical literaiture, Copyright 1975 IEEE. Reprinted, with permission. Technical Digest. International Electron Devices Meeting, IEEE, 1975, pp. 11-13.]," in IEEE Solid-State Circuits Society Newsletter, vol. 11, no. 3, pp. 36-37, Sept. 2006. doi: 10.1109/N-SSC.2006.4804410
  7. ↑ Scannell, Jack W., et al. “Diagnosing the Decline in Pharmaceutical R&D Efficiency.” Nature News, Nature Publishing Group, 1 Mar. 2012, www.nature.com/articles/nrd3681.
  8. ↑ Carlson, Robert H. Biology Is Technology: the Promise, Peril, and New Business of Engineering Life. Harvard University Press, 2011.
  9. ↑ "Ten Laws Of The Modern World ", Forbes https://www.forbes.com/2005/04/19/cz_rk_0419karlgaard.html#336a357f740d
  10. ↑ "Metcalfe's Law", Technopedia https://www.techopedia.com/definition/29066/metcalfes-law
  11. ↑ Heath, Nick. “'Moore's Law Is Dead': Three Predictions about the Computers of Tomorrow.” TechRepublic, www.techrepublic.com/article/moores-law-is-dead-three-predictions-about-the-computers-of-tomorrow/.
  12. ↑ Vyas, Kashyap. “Intel Finally Unveils 10nm Cannon Lake Processors.” Interesting Engineering, 24 Sept. 2018, interestingengineering.com/intel-finally-unveils-10nm-cannon-lake-processors.
  13. ↑ “Hi-Tech Photos of Facebook's Freezing Cold Data Centers Revealed.” Interesting Engineering, 12 Mar. 2018, interestingengineering.com/mark-zuckerberg-releases-hi-tech-photos-facebook-data-center.
  14. ↑ Tibken, Shara. “CES 2019: Moore's Law Is Dead, Says Nvidia's CEO.” CNET, CNET, 9 Jan. 2019, www.cnet.com/news/moores-law-is-dead-nvidias-ceo-jensen-huang-says-at-ces-2019/.
  15. ↑ Brey, Philip A. E. “Anticipating Ethical Issues in Emerging IT.” SpringerLink, Springer Netherlands, 24 May 2012, link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10676-012-9293-y.
  16. ↑ Dennett, Daniel C. “Information, Technology, and the Virtues of Ignorance.” Daedalus, vol. 115, no. 3, 1986, pp. 135–153. JSTOR, www.jstor.org/stable/20025064.
  17. ↑ “Algorithms of Oppression.” Wikipedia, Wikimedia Foundation, 25 Mar. 2019, en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Algorithms_of_Oppression.
  18. ↑ Grodzinsky, Frances S., et al. “The Ethics of Designing Artificial Agents.” SpringerLink, Springer Netherlands, 21 June 2008, link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10676-008-9163-9.
  19. ↑ “Privacy-Information Friction.” The 4th Revolution: How the Infosphere Is Reshaping Human Reality, by Luciano Floridi, Oxford University Press, 2016, pp. 101–128.
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